Exercise Set Unit  III 

Discrete Probability Distributions.

1. Suppose the probability distribution (pd) for X = number of jobs held during the past year for students in a statistics class is as follows:

X :           0      1        2      3      4

P(X) :   .14    .37    .29    .15    .05

(a) find P(x<=2)        answer = 0.51

(b) find P(>=1)         answer = 0.86

(c) Calculate the E(x)    answer = 1.6

(d) Plot the graph of the pd of X.

2. The Smith family wants to have children. They are working with a financial advisor who informs them that historically, families such as theirs the probability distribution of X = the number of children they might have is given as follows:

X:        0        1        2        3

P(X)    .05    .60    .30    .05

(a) Calculate E(x)     answer = 1.35

(b) Is E(x) a possible outcome for the number of children the Smith family may have?

(c) What is the meaning of E(x)?

3. Californians play a lottery known as Decco. In Decco a player chooses four cards, one each from the four suits, Spades, Clubs, Diamonds, Hearts from an ordinary deck of playing cards. For example a player might choose "5 of clubs", "king of spades", "8 of hearts" and "jack of diamonds". The state draws a winning card from each of the suits. If a players cards match one or more of the states cards, the the player is a winner. It cost $1.00 to play. The payoff matrix or pd is given below. Assume that X= net gain

Number of matches     Prize   Net Gain    Probability
             4       $5,000.00     $4,999.00 0.000035
             3       $50.00     $49.00 0.00168
             2       $5.00     $4.00 0.0303
             1       Free Ticket     $0.0 0.242
             0       None     $-1.00 0.726

(a) Calculate the expected value of the lottery      answer = -$0.35

(b) What does this tell us?

(c) The free ticket is really not worth the price! Can you explain this?

4. Consider a game in which you roll a die and receive $1 for each spot or dot that occurs. (a) What is the expected winnings for this game? answer = $3.50 (b) If you paid $4 to play the game, how much would you lose, on average, each time you played the game? answer = $0.50

Binomial random Variables

1.Suppose that the probability that you win a game is 0.2 for each play, and plays of the game are independent of one another. Let X = number of wins in three plays. Note this is the probability distribution with number of trials n=3  and probability of success p =.2

(a) Find P(X=2)     answer = 0.096

(b) Find P(X>=1)  answer = 0.488

(c) Calculate  E(X)    answer = 0.6

2.For each of the following binomial random variables, specify n an p.

(a) A fair die is rolled 30 times. X = number of times a 6 is rolled.

(b) A company puts a game card in each box of cereal and 1/100 of them are winners. You buy ten boxes of cereal and X = number of games you win.

(c) You like to play computer solitaire in class. You win about 30% of the time.   Let X = number of wins in next 20 games.

3. A human and a computer play a 10 game chess tournament. The probability that the human wins any game is 0.6. Find the probability for each of the following events.

(a) They human wins exactly five games. answer = .201

(b) The computer wins exactly seven games.  answer = .042

(c) The human wins five games. answer = .834

4. fair cube is colored so that 4 faces are red and 2 faces are green. The cube is tossed 9 times. If success is defined as a red face being up, find:

(a) the mean number of red faces. answer = 6

(b) the probability of getting exactly 5 red faces. answer = .2048

The Normal Distribution

IQ scores follow a normal distribution with mean 100 and standard deviation 15.

What percent of scores will be

(a) between 100 and 115 answer = 34%

(b) what percent of scores will be between 70 and 130? answer = 95%

(c) find the probability that a person selected at random will have an IQ

 between  85 and 115? answer = .68

greater than 130 answer = .025